The Year in Preview

President Barack Obama	Rick Santorum	Ron Paul	Newt Gingrich

Last month we wrote a “Year in Review” recap, highlighting important events of 2011. This month, let’s look ahead at what we expect to be some of the big stories of 2012.

Politics

Politics will dominate the mainstream media as the Republican primaries play out through the winter and spring. It’s possible that the designated front-runner, Mitt Romney, will sew up the nomination by the end of January—having won New Hampshire, he must solidly defeat Newt Gingrich in South Carolina and Florida and hold off Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, the only remaining threats to his unlimited financial reserves and five years of planning for the race.

But Paul could easily continue running as an outsider libertarian, despite his decades in Congress and his love of big government when it comes to controlling peoples’ private lives; the March primaries in eight southern and Midwestern states could help him do so.

Santorum is the latest and least of the “Not-Romneys”—Michelle Bachman, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich—who have risen and fallen as their fanaticism, stupidity, ignorance, and personal baggage dragged them back down; if New Hampshire gives him additional momentum in South Carolina, he might inherit enough of their evangelical and Tea Party support to continue challenging Romney.

Closer to home, North Carolina holds its primary election in May, and on the ballot, along with the Republican presidential nomination, is the GOP’s gratuitous proposal to amend the state Constitution to ban gay marriage and eliminate all couples’ partnership rights—to health care, insurance, and other standard benefits—already in effect in numerous cities, towns, and counties around the state. As of early December, polls showed that 53 percent of the public opposes such an amendment, but that doesn’t make it likely to fail.

The Republicans’ decision to piggy-back the amendment vote on the presidential primary vote was universally recognized as a way to increase turnout among those most likely to support the ban; a presidential primary that is already settled is the outcome the Raleigh GOP leadership would like least.

But in their zeal to redistrict as many Democrats as possible out of their seats in the N.C. House and Senate and the U. S. Congress, the Republicans might have inadvertently shot themselves in the foot. They changed district lines across the state, so scores of Democratic candidates will be vying for newly drawn state legislative and Congressional seats.

Those contests will draw out tens of thousands of progressive Democrats to the polls, the majority of whom will oppose the Constitutional Amendment regardless of their preferred primary candidate.

(At press time, the Democrats are challenging the new district lines in court, and have petitioned for the primary to be postponed to July; a rescheduled primary could help or hinder either party, depending on whether the constitutional ballot issue is rescheduled as well.)

Asheville Mayor Terry Bellamy and state Representative Patsy Keever, a former County Commissioner and retired teacher, are the two most prominent Democrats hoping to challenge Rep. Patrick McHenry in the newly expanded 10th Congressional District.

Asheville City Councilman Cecil Bothwell is challenging incumbent Democrat Heath Shuler in the 11th District, which was centered on Asheville for decades, until the Republicans moved the city into the 10th. While those new boundaries might change, along with numerous other redistricting choices being challenged in several lawsuits, different parts of Asheville and Buncombe County might well be represented by different Congressman for the first time ever.

In Buncombe County, meanwhile, the Board of Commissioners will be expanded to seven seats from five (reflecting the Republicans’ commitment to “smaller government”). Two commissioners will be elected within each of the three state legislative districts (14, 15, 16), and a commission chairman will be elected countywide.

While Rep. Tim Moffitt, who wrote the legislation making the change, insists the new plan gives voters a greater voice in choosing their leadership, the fact is that where all voters have been able to choose five candidates for five seats, they will now get to vote for only three of seven commissioners. Additionally, the change makes it likely that every commissioner other than the chairperson will be more concerned about the parochial interests of his or her district than about the needs of the County as a whole.

The Democratic National Committee is gearing up for the September 2012 convention in Charlotte, N. C. Hotel rooms are going fast! Plans are being made by the Intergovernmental Affairs and Outreach team to spend time across the state talking to community leaders, citizens, and elected officials to identify 100 Convention Community Organizers (CCOs), who will serve as ambassadors to the convention in their counties and communities across the state.

“With the 100 County Plan, we hope to engage a Convention Community Organizer (CCO) from each county in the state and gather ideas to help ensure that this Convention is truly representative of the state of North Carolina, and reflective of the ideas of its citizens,” stated Steve Kerrigan, DNCC CEO.

Jobs & Development

Several companies will increase employment opportunities in the County in 2012, as was made apparent by the well-attended job fair held at Biltmore Square Mall December 30. Approximately 3,000 residents turned out to meet with representatives of dozens of companies ranging from a new marketing firm to Linamar manufacturing, which will take over the former Volvo plant in Arden later this year. But job opportunities are still few and far between for those without updated skills or recent employment experience, and the actual unemployment rate remains far higher than the reported one.

As always, white males will be the first to be hired for well-paying jobs, followed by white females, minority females, and last, (if at all), black males. Sadly the same subtle and silent prejudices that have skewed the job market for generations are still at work in our culture.

Talk of the Town

To everyone’s amazement, the redevelopment plan for The Block will move forward, though construction will not begin for at least another year. But funding will be lined up, contracts will be offered and signed, and permits will be issued for the new residential complex planned for Market Street.

Despite the recent flooding at Pack Place, the Asheville Art Museum will move forward with its expansion at a steady pace as it moves into the former Health Adventure space as well as the Promenade causeway of the main entrance to the building, which currently houses the historic 1800s evolution of Asheville display.

Questions will be raised about the continuing subsidy of Pack Place by the newly expanded Buncombe County Commission next autumn, assuming that the new district lines help Republicans from outside Asheville win seats.

And in November…

And despite the slight inroads Republicans will make in local races, the state legislature will return to Democratic control as a result of the GOP’s continued overreaching during the coming spring and summer. And as the unemployment rate drops to eight percent by early September, the public’s perception of an improving economy and being “on the right track” will propel President Obama to a second term and return the House of Representatives to Democratic control.

The Veepstakes!

The big question for the Republican nominee next summer will be choosing a running mate. The three popular names are Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida.

Condoleezza Rice	Mitt Romney

If there’s any chance of the Republicans taking over the Senate, they won’t want Rubio to step down from the seat he won just two years ago. So they’ll turn to Christie, who will decline in order to pursue his own ambitions at a more auspicious time (he’s loathed by his New Jersey electorate now that they’ve endured his first two years in office). And the pundits will then assume that Jindal, the Republican of Indian heritage who bombed in his rebuttal to President Obama’s first State of the Union address, is the right man to show how open the GOP is to non-whites.

But Mitt Romney, the chameleon who’s desperate to prove himself all things to all people, will ask former Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to be his vice-presidential candidate, parroting (and unwittingly parodying) the infamous remark by right-wing radio commentator Ann Coulter, speaking about Herman Cain, that “our blacks are so much better than their blacks.” (www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/11/01/ann-coulter-herman-cain-our-blacks_n_1069172.html)

Yes, it will be Obama-Biden v. Romney-Rice in 2012.